Statistics Canada released a report that the continuous dry weather in western Canada has a more serious impact on rapeseed and wheat production than estimated a few weeks ago. This year, western Canada experienced record high temperatures in summer and scarce rainfall, resulting in a significant reduction in crop production in Canada.
According to the yield model using satellite images, Statistics Canada predicts that the rapeseed yield in 2021 / 22 will be 12.8 million tons, about 2 million tons lower than the estimated value on August 30, 34.4% lower than last year, the lowest yield since 2010. Because the drought on the prairie has led to the lowest yield in ten years, only 25.3 PU / acre, a year-on-year decrease of 39.5%, This offset the 8.1% increase in harvest area.
After the release of the report, ice’s rapeseed futures rose strongly, up 4.4%.
By the end of August, Alberta’s rapeseed harvest progress had reached 26%, higher than 10% in the same period last year and more than twice the average progress of 11% in 2016-2020. Saskatchewan’s harvest progress was 40%, higher than 28% in the same period last year and the five-year average of 22%. Manitoba’s harvest was 35%, higher than 13% in the same period last year and 28% of the five-year average.
Statistics Canada lowered the output forecast of all wheat in Canada to 21.7 million tons, lower than the previously expected 22.9 million tons, 38.3% lower than that in 2020, because the unit yield fell to 35.2 PU / acre, a year-on-year decrease of 32.6%; The harvest area decreased to 22.7 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%.
The main reason for the decrease of wheat yield is spring wheat. In addition to the decrease of sowing area, the drought in western Canada also led to the decrease of spring wheat yield. Statistics Canada lowered the forecast value of spring wheat output from the previous forecast of 16.1 million tons to 15.3 million tons, a decrease of 41% over the previous year, the lowest output since 2007.
Source: Master Boyi
Post time: Sep-22-2021