Canadian rapeseed stocks may be lower than current expectations this year

Statistics Canada said that in June 2021, Canada’s rapeseed crushing capacity was 829846 tons, an increase of nearly 9600 tons over May. Although the demand for rapeseed has been adjusted and the inventory is expected to fall to the lowest level since July 2013, the rapeseed crushing volume in the first 11 months of this year still increased significantly.

The rapeseed crushing volume in June decreased by 4% over the same period of the previous year, but it was 6.4% higher than the three-year average, and 2.4% lower than the monthly crushing volume of 850000 tons required to achieve the annual crushing target of 10.2 million tons this year. In the last month of the year (i.e. July), only 607361 tons need to be squeezed to achieve the current goal. So far this year, Canada’s rapeseed crushing volume is 9.593 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, 2.6% higher than the level required to achieve the target level, 0.3% higher than the three-year average and 3.8% higher than the five-year average.

In the first 11 months of this year, the output of rapeseed oil in Canada was 4.166 million tons, accounting for 43.4% of the total pressed rapeseed, compared with 43.8% in the same period of last year, with a three-year average of 44% and a five-year average of 43.8%.

On July 26, the Canadian rapeseed profit index was $35.37 per ton, down $7.81 from the previous day, down from $48.06 a week ago and $98.03 a month ago, compared with $64.29 a year earlier.

Statistics Canada also said that in the first 11 months of this year, farmers delivered 19.459 million tons of rapeseed.

As the farm inventory on July 31, 2020 is 1.836 million tons, plus the rape seed output of 18.72 million tons, which means that the total supply of this year is 20.556 million tons, the delivery volume of farmers is equivalent to 94.7% of the total supply, and only 1 million tons of rapeseed can be exported and pressed in July. Therefore, the ending inventory of this year may be more tense than the current expected 700000 tons.

Source: China Agricultural Information Network

Post time: Aug-06-2021