At present, the soybean harvest in Brazil has entered the final stage. It is expected that nearly 80% of the soybean harvest progress will be completed this week, and the soybean harvest in the central and Northern production areas will be basically completed. The meteorological model shows that the rainfall in Brazil’s soybean producing areas continues to decrease this week. Only Sao Paulo, Parana, San Catalina and Rio Grande do Sul in the south are covered with rainfall, but the rainfall is small. The reduction of rainfall is conducive to soybean harvest.
Since the middle and late February, the rainfall in Argentina’s soybean producing areas has increased, which is conducive to improving the growth of soybeans. However, due to the continuous dry weather during the sowing period, the growth of soybeans is still poor. The recent increase in rainfall is difficult to reverse the downward trend of soybean production. Meteorological models show that rainfall in Argentina’s main soybean producing areas decreased this week, with almost no rainfall in corvado state and only sporadic rainfall in other producing areas.
On March 25, the price of CBOT soybean futures market rose. Although South American soybeans continued to harvest and appear on the market, the demand for U.S. soybean exports remained strong. As of the closing, soybean futures rose 3.5 ~ 9.5 cents / bushel, of which the May futures closed up 9.5 cents to close at 1710.25 cents / bushel; July futures closed up 6.25 cents to close at 1688.50 cents / bushel; November futures closed up 3.75 cents to close at 1496.75 cents / bushel.
It has been more than a month since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, market concerns have gradually eased, and commodity prices have gradually returned to their fundamentals. Nearly 80% of Brazil’s soybean harvest has been completed, and the output of harvested soybean has performed poorly. Recently, market institutions continue to reduce soybean output. Due to the reduction of soybean production, the progress of grain sales of Brazilian farmers is slower than that of the previous year, and their domestic oil plants actively purchase, the number of soybeans available for export is reduced, and the export of soybeans is at a high discount, which is good for the export of soybeans in the United States. The new year’s soybean planting in the United States will start next month. At present, the market believes that the soybean planting area will increase, but there are differences in the size of the increase. This week, USDA will release a planting intention report to provide guidance for the market. Affected by the reduction of soybean production in South America, the global soybean supply and demand fundamentals are tight. It is expected that the short-term price trend of American beans will be relatively strong, and the North American market will dominate the price trend in the later stage.
Last week, the price of us soybeans fluctuated and rose slightly, the discount quotation of soybean export remained high, and the cost of soybean import increased. The monitoring shows that the CNF quotation of Meiwan soybean in October is 701 US dollars / ton, and the premium quotation is 415 US cents / bushel compared with the CBOT contract in November, which is equivalent to the duty paid price of 5115 yuan / ton (3% import tariff and 9% value-added tax), with a weekly increase of 70 yuan / ton; The CNF quotation of Brazilian soybeans in April was 761 US dollars / ton, and the premium was 360 cents / bushel for the CBOT contract in May, which was equivalent to 5520 yuan / ton of duty paid at the port, with a weekly increase of 105 yuan / ton.
The price of domestic soybean meal rose and fell, the weekly closing rose, the price of soybean oil fluctuated and adjusted, and the pressing profit of imported soybean disk decreased. According to the monitoring, the contract squeezing profit of Meiwan soybean in October to Dachang exchange in January was – 245 yuan / ton (3% import tariff, processing cost was 200 yuan / ton), and the weekly ring ratio decreased by 90 yuan / ton. The contract squeezing profit of Brazil soybean in May to Dachang exchange in September was – 340 yuan / ton, and the weekly ring ratio decreased by 115 yuan / ton. Due to the strong spot price and basis quotation of oil meal, the spot crushing profit of soybean of local oil plants is 290 ~ 420 yuan / ton, which fluctuates by 30 ~ 60 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week.
Due to the outbreak in many places in China, affecting the port soybean loading and unloading and the startup of oil plants, the soybean crushing volume was lower than expected last week. Monitoring shows that the domestic soybean crushing volume last week was 1.2 million tons, 100000 tons less than the previous week, 260000 tons less than the same period last year, and 370000 tons less than the average in the same period in recent three years. At present, the domestic soybean inventory is low, and the epidemic affects the loading and unloading and logistics transportation of some ports. In the short term, the soybean shortage in domestic oil plants continues. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume will remain low this week.
Source:National grain and Oil Information Center
Post time: Mar-31-2022