Foreign media news on October 31: as of the week of October 29, 2021, most of the global oilseed market rose, continuing the rise last week, because the rainfall in the Midwest of the United States led to the interruption of autumn grain harvest, the tight supply of rapeseed in Canada, and the La Nina phenomenon may restrict the per unit yield potential of soybean in South America. However, the U.S. crude oil and Chicago soybean oil market fell this week, and the rise in the price of chemical fertilizer may increase the sown area of U.S. soybeans next year, restricting the rising space of soybeans.
On Friday, the January soybean futures on the Chicago Board of trade (CBOT) rose 18.75 cents, or 1.5%, to 1249.50 cents / PU. The average spot price of Meiwan No. 1 yellow soybean was US $13.1025 per bushel (US $481.4 per ton), up 12.75 cents or 0.98% from a week ago. In February 2022, the rapeseed period of Euronext exchange closed at about 678.25 euros / ton, up 8.5 euros or 1.3% from a week ago. The January rapeseed period of ice rose about 34.50 Canadian dollars or 3.7% to close at 959.80 Canadian dollars / ton; The FOB spot quotation of Shanghe soybean provided by the Argentine Ministry of agriculture was US $544 (including 33% export tax), up US $6 or 1.12% from a week ago. The settlement price of soybean futures in Dalian Commodity Exchange in January 2022 was 6210 yuan / ton, up 55 yuan or 0.9% from a week ago.
On Friday, the dollar index closed at 94.13 points, up 0.5% from a week ago and down 0.1% from a month ago.
Chicago soybean futures fell 1.3% in October, mainly due to Seasonal Harvest pressure. The weather in South America is better than last year, the prospect of soybean sowing and yield is good, and the slow pace of export puts pressure on soybean prices. However, soybean prices rebounded in the second half of October, because after soybean prices hit a new low since the end of the year, they attracted Chinese buyers to enter the market.
Rainfall in the Midwest of the United States has slowed down the pace of soybean harvest, and the Midwest will have the lowest temperature of the year in the next few days
According to the national crop progress weekly report released by the U.S. Department of agriculture on Monday, as of October 24, the U.S. soybean harvest had completed 73%, 60% a week ago, 82% in the same period last year and an average of 70% in the same period in five years. This week, there was a large range of moderate to heavy rain in most areas of the corn planting belt, with rainfall of 2 to 4 inches. The belt to the East in southern Iowa and Northern Missouri, as well as southern Michigan and Northwestern Ohio had more rainfall. Analysts pointed out that it will rain almost every day this week, so farmers will not go to the field to resume harvesting until next week. The USDA’s weekly crop report next week may show a significant slowdown in harvest progress and some quality problems. However, people in the U.S. market believe that the U.S. soybean yield may be better than previously expected, and the U.S. Department of agriculture may increase the U.S. soybean yield in the supply and demand report on November 9.
Early next week, many parts of the United States will have the coldest weather of the year, especially the plains and the Midwest. From November 1 to 3, the temperature in the northern plain will generally be lower than 20 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 6.7 degrees), and frost weather may occur from northern Texas to the Ohio Valley. In addition to rainfall in the eastern region, there will be little rainfall in the United States in the next 5 days. In the next 6 to 10 days (November 3 to 7) , except for Florida, the temperature in most areas is close to or lower than normal, and cold weather is likely to occur in the middle of the Mississippi Valley. The precipitation in most areas will be close to or higher than normal, but the precipitation in the northern plains and the northern part of the Midwest is lower than normal. Justin Gleason, a meteorological expert in Iowa, predicts that the Midwest will be large in the first two weeks of November Some areas may be cold and dry.
The pace of soybean export generally lags behind, but Chinese buyers speed up their procurement
According to the weekly export sales report of the U.S. Department of agriculture, as of the week of October 21, the net sales volume of soybeans in the United States in 2021 / 22 was 1.18 million tons, a decrease of 59% over the previous week and 22% over the four week average. So far in 2021 / 22, the total export sales volume of soybeans in the United States has been 30.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%. In the current week, the United States sold 1.08 million tons of soybeans to China, lower than 1.88 million tons in the previous week. So far this year Today, the United States has sold 16.05 million tons of soybeans to China, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%.
As soybean prices fell during October, the lowest since the end of last year, the export facilities of Meiwan recovered from the interruption caused by Hurricane IDA, and the profit of Chinese soybean crushing improved. The sales and shipment of soybeans from the United States to China in October was significantly better than that in September. Chinese buyers are purchasing soybeans shipped from Meiwan in December and from west America (PNW) from January to March next year Soybeans shipped. Nevertheless, at present, the pace of U.S. soybean export is still significantly behind. Some analysts believe that the U.S. Department of agriculture may lower the forecast value of U.S. soybean export by 60 million bushels in the supply and demand report in November, which means that the soybean inventory at the end of August next year may be close to 400 million bushels, much higher than 256 million bushels at the end of August this year.
Canadian rapeseed prices continue to rise strongly
Rapeseed prices continued to rise this week, and the rapeseed period of ice exceeded the $1000 mark because of tight supply and good demand. Department of agriculture of Canada (aafc) According to the October report released, the output of Canadian rapeseed in 2021 / 22 is expected to be 12.78 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%. The export volume is expected to be 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%; the ending inventory is expected to be 500000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 71.7%. According to the data of the Canadian grain Council, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 274600 tons, an increase of 48.1% over the week before October 24 However, so far this year, the export volume of rapeseed has been 1443800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%.
Rainfall in South America helps to sow soybeans
In Brazil, recent rainfall in the main agricultural production areas of Brazil has improved soil moisture, which is conducive to the cultivation of corn and soybean in 2021 / 22. Brazil national commodity supply company (conab) According to the data of, as of October 23, the soybean planting progress of the main soybean producing states in Brazil in 2021 / 22 was 36.8%, higher than 20.5% in the same period last year. The soybean planting area of these main soybean producing states is equivalent to 97% of the national area. It will continue to rain in the soybean producing areas in the future, which is conducive to the initial growth of soybean crops. Brazil’s National Meteorological Administration (imnet) He said that in the central and western regions, the rainfall from October 26 to November may be concentrated in the east of South Mato Grosso State, with a rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the recent rainfall in agricultural areas is conducive to the promotion of soybean sowing. However, the weather forecast shows that the weather will become dry in the future, possibly due to the influence of La Nina phenomenon. The exchange expects the soybean sowing area to be 16.5 million hectares in 2021 / 22, the lowest in 15 years, because farmers are more willing to plant Plant corn.
Source: Master Boyi
Post time: Nov-04-2021