This month’s 2022/23 U.S. rice supply and demand adjustments include a slight upward revision to supply, no change in domestic use, a downward revision to exports, and an upward revision to ending stocks. According to the NASS Crop Production Report, all rice yield estimates were raised by 13 pounds to 7,599 pounds per acre, resulting in a slight increase in supply. 2022/23 U.S. rice export estimates were lowered by 2 million U.S. quintals to 75 million U.S. quintals, with the decrease all concentrated in long grain rice, as relatively high U.S. prices resulted in a slow pace of sales for the year. If the forecast becomes a reality, it would be the lowest export size since 1991/92. Rice ending stocks were revised upward by 2.3 million U.S. quintals to 33.2 million U.S. quintals, but are still more than 16 percent lower than the previous year. The average farm price for all rice for the year remains unchanged at $19.40 per U.S. quintal.
Global rice supply, consumption, trade and ending stocks were all revised downward in 2022/23. 2022/23 global rice supply was revised downward by 3.6 million tons to 689.3 million tons, mainly due to lower production in India and Pakistan. According to the Indian government’s first forecast for the 2022/23 crop, Indian rice production was revised downward by 2.5 million tons to 124.0 million tons. Pakistan’s production was revised downward by 1 million tons to 7.4 million tons because of lower harvested area and yields due to widespread flooding, especially in Sindh province. Global rice exports are revised downward by 400,000 tons to 53.2 million tons as declines in India and Pakistan outweigh increases in exports from Vietnam, Thailand and Brazil. 2022/23 global ending stocks are revised downward by 2.4 million tons to 171.2 million tons, mainly due to lower stocks in India, which would also be the lowest stock size since 2017/18.
Source: USDA
Post time: Oct-19-2022