USDA predicts soybean planting area is lower than market expectations

USDA released the forecast data of spring sowing area in 2022 at the annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. It is expected that American farmers will increase the sowing area of soybeans and reduce the area of corn this spring. However, the USDA gave that the soybean area was lower than the industry expectation, while the corn area was higher than the industry expectation.

The USDA predicts that the soybean planting area in the United States will reach 88 million acres, up from 87.2 million acres last year; Corn acreage is estimated to be 92 million acres, down from 93.4 million acres in 2021. The USDA said U.S. farmers were encouraged to increase the area of soybeans due to the rise in soybean prices caused by drought in South America. High production costs may benefit oilseed production rather than corn, which needs more fertilizer.

USDA reports that soybean cultivation is expected to benefit as farmers struggle to cope with high production costs. In contrast, a survey before the report showed that analysts expected 89.2 million acres of soybeans and 91.8 million acres of corn in the United States in 2022. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the total planting area of corn and soybeans in the United States this year will reach 180 million acres, slightly lower than 180.6 million acres last year. Last year’s planting conditions were favorable.

USDA said that due to the reduction of soybean production due to the drought in South America, the demand for U.S. soybean exports is expected to increase in the first half of 2022 / 23 from September 1 to February 2023. However, soybean production in South America is expected to recover in early 2023, which may limit the growth of U.S. exports.

The total wheat planting area in the United States in 2022 / 23 is expected to be 48 million acres, higher than 46.7 million acres in 2021 / 22. The US Department of agriculture had predicted in January that the planting area of winter wheat would reach 34.4 million acres, an increase of 2% year-on-year. USDA estimates that the area of spring wheat will also be higher than that of the previous year, but in the spring wheat planting area of the northern plain, the price of competitive crops (such as other minor cereals and beans) is favorable, which may limit the expansion of spring wheat area.

USDA estimates that the US wheat output is expected to increase by 1.94 billion bushels year-on-year, which will increase the ending inventory of wheat in 2022 / 23 to 731 million bushels, higher than the ending inventory of 648 million bushels in 2021 / 22. The ending inventory of corn in the United States is expected to increase to 1.965 billion Pu, higher than 1.54 billion Pu in 2021 / 22; The ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 305 million Pu, lower than 325 million Pu in 2021 / 22.

Source: USDA

Post time: Mar-02-2022