What impact will the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have on the rape market?

Recently, kleffmann digital used cropradar to measure the rape planting area of the top 10 rape planting countries in Europe. In January 2022, more than 6 million hectares of rape were identified in these countries.

In 2021 production year, only Ukraine and Poland have more than 1 million hectares of rape planting area, which has increased to four this year. After two difficult years, Germany and France have planted more than 1 million hectares. In this quarter, as of the end of February, the ranking of France, Poland and Ukraine was almost the same (the survey period ended February 20, 2022). Germany followed, ranking fourth, with a difference of only about 50000 hectares. The new champion France has the largest increase in planting area, up to 18%. Romania ranked fifth with a planting area of more than 500000 hectares for the second consecutive year.

One of the reasons for the increase in rape planting area in Europe is the rapeseed price on the exchange. Over the years, the price of rapeseed has been hovering around 400 euros / ton, but it has continued to rise steadily since January 2021, with an initial peak of more than 900 euros / ton in March 2022. In addition, winter rape is still a crop with a very high contribution rate. Good sowing conditions in late summer / late autumn of 2021 allow growers to expand their planting area and the crops grow well.

The number of fields varies greatly in different countries

Using satellite technology and artificial intelligence, kleffmann digital can also determine how many fields are planted in these ten countries. The number of fields reflects the diversity of agricultural structure: more than 475000 fields were planted with rape this season. The top three countries have almost the same planting area, but the number of fields and average field area are very different. The number of fields in France and Poland is similar, 128741 and 126618 respectively. The two countries also have the same largest average field area in an area, which is 19 hectares. The situation in Ukraine is different. Although the planting area is similar to that in the first two countries, the number of fields is only 23396.

What impact will the conflict in Ukraine have on the global rape market

Kleffmann digital’s cropradar assessment shows that in 2021, rape production in Europe was dominated by Ukraine and Poland, both of which exceeded 1 million hectares. In 2022, Germany and France joined them, with a planting area of more than 1 million hectares respectively. However, there are differences between planting area and yield, especially due to the more common factors such as insect pests and overwintering frost. Now, a large rape growing country has fallen into war, and the conflict will inevitably affect the production priority and the ability to harvest the remaining crops. As the conflict continues, the short -, medium – and long-term prospects are uncertain. The population leaving their homes undoubtedly includes farmers and all those who serve the industry. The harvest in 2022 is likely to not reach the contribution it can make as one of the major markets. In the previous production year, the average output of Winter Rape in Ukraine was 2.86 tons / ha, with a total output of 3 million tons. The average output of 27 EU countries is 3.22 tons / ha, with a total output of 17.345 million tons.

The weather conditions in this production year are conducive to the planting of Winter Rape in Ukraine. Most of the plantations are located in the southern part of the country, such as Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk and Kherson, which has coastal ports for export. Much depends on the end of the conflict, the remaining post-war facilities capable of handling harvested crops and the country’s export capacity. Given that Ukraine accounted for 17% of Europe’s rapeseed production last year, the war will certainly have an impact on the WOSR market, but not as much as other crops in the country, such as sunflowers. As Ukraine and Russia are the most important sunflower planting countries, significant changes are expected, with a significant reduction in sunflower planting area.

Source: World agrochemical network

Post time: Mar-29-2022